Transcript [00:01] Good evening and welcome to Israel [00:04] Insider with me Ashley Perry uh advisor [00:08] to Israel's Middle East um Middle East [00:13] formed Israel office. Um as usual I'll [00:17] be talking for around 15 20 minutes and [00:20] then leave it open for questions. Please [00:22] I say this every week please put your [00:24] questions in the Q&A button at the [00:26] bottom not in the chat button. anyone [00:29] who puts in the chat button, there's a [00:30] very strong likelihood I will not see [00:32] it. So, please feel free to ask any [00:35] questions uh before, during, and after [00:38] my opening remarks, and I will try and [00:41] get to as many as possible. Um, so, as [00:46] we've seen in recent days, there's been [00:48] another uptick in an an escalation in in [00:52] Iran. It doesn't seem as much as from [00:55] the outside it seems that President [00:57] Trump wants to kind of uh move away from [01:00] Iran even allowing some of the big [01:02] warships to uh to dock. I think it's uh [01:06] was in Thailand today um where some of [01:09] the seammen who had been at sea for [01:11] hundreds of days were given leave. Um, [01:14] it's clear, you know, that the fact that [01:16] President Trump returned or has asked [01:20] diplomats in the region to return, it's [01:22] clear he at this point in time, he wants [01:24] to try and get back to some sort of [01:26] normality. Wants to see um the price of [01:30] oil go down as much as possible for the [01:33] uh midterms. But it just doesn't seem [01:36] like the Iranians want to play ball with [01:37] that. They keep on trying to poke the US [01:40] in the eye. And uh you know this week [01:44] they tried to launch some new mines into [01:47] the street of Hormuz. They tried to [01:49] attack tankers. Um and the Americans uh [01:53] launched a response as as big as it's [01:56] been in weeks. Um taking out various [01:59] military um installations [02:03] uh not just near the Strait of Homos but [02:05] actually across Iran, even into western [02:08] uh Iran. Um and they also tried to take [02:13] out or they did take out uh some of the [02:16] Iranian tankers in a new policy which [02:18] has been described as tanker for a [02:20] tanker. If uh a tanker that's trying to [02:23] navigate the straight of Homus is [02:25] attacked then the Americans will then [02:27] try and take out one of uh Iran's uh [02:30] tankers. It's still relatively contained [02:33] and constrained. Um but one [02:36] miscalculation from either side um [02:40] could obviously raise the flames uh much [02:43] further. There have been more attacks on [02:47] American bases in the region uh getting [02:50] closer to Israel even as far as Jordan. [02:53] And it's really the the big question [02:55] hanging in the air for many in Israel is [02:59] will we be the recipient of another [03:01] barrage of attacks of missiles? Um could [03:05] it happen? And the assessment here in [03:08] the security apparatus is that there's a [03:10] big disagreement in the Iranian [03:13] decision-making echelons whether to [03:15] attack Israel or not. There are those [03:17] who say do not attack Israel because as [03:20] they have witnessed themselves, Israel [03:22] has a a quite remarkable abilities um to [03:27] attack Iran to their intelligence [03:29] capabilities are extremely good and um [03:33] it's clear that Israel, the Israel Air [03:35] Force has been on standby for quite a [03:38] while. As I've said quite a few times in [03:40] recent weeks, there is a bank of targets [03:42] that many in the IIAF are just itching [03:45] to get to. Um, and this is known by that [03:49] camp, but it's known by everybody, but [03:52] that's the argument that that particular [03:54] camp. And there are those who say no. [03:56] Um, Israel should get what's coming to [03:58] them. This is a war against foreign, you [04:02] know, colonialization, etc., and we [04:04] fight for Palestine and all the rhetoric [04:07] we're used to from this extremist [04:08] Islamic Republic and especially the the [04:11] real extremists even within the [04:13] decision-making process. You know, we [04:15] always talk about moderates and [04:16] extremists. Well, you know, moderates [04:18] are just a little bit more pragmatic [04:20] than the religious fanatics, let's put [04:23] it that way. So, there there is an [04:25] understanding in the Israeli [04:27] intelligence and security apparatus that [04:29] there are different voices saying [04:31] different things. Um, Israel is still [04:34] very much on standby and we heard [04:36] defense minister Katz say today at a [04:39] conference, Israel will respond with [04:41] great force. Um, and also that there is [04:45] a concern um that Iran could take [04:49] advantage of the upcoming uh Jewish [04:52] holidays. Um, as of next Friday night, [04:55] the new year of Shashana begins and that [04:58] goes into a series of Jewish holidays. [05:00] Kipo and then Sukkot. Um so it's a good [05:03] few weeks and as we know at the end of [05:05] Sukkot is Sukhhatra which is the day [05:08] where you know the massacre of October [05:11] 7th was launched. It was specifically [05:14] launched on um the Jewish holiday [05:17] because it was felt that that was where [05:19] you know Israelis will be most [05:21] distracted. We know from history that [05:23] also um you know the Yumipur war started [05:28] on Yum Kipur. So there is a uh there is [05:32] a history here and um uh defense [05:36] minister Katz laid out that there is a [05:39] concern. I don't I don't know if it's [05:41] more than that. Maybe it is, but there [05:43] is a concern that once again Israel's [05:45] enemies will try and use the Jewish [05:46] holidays um as an excuse to uh attack [05:51] attack it. Um so we'll see what happens [05:53] there. President Trump reacted to all of [05:57] this sort of discussion and concern in [05:59] Israel and saying that Israel really [06:00] shouldn't uh worry about it. He's got [06:03] Israel's back. Um but it's clear that [06:06] there is a worry. It's clear that um [06:08] there'll be a heightened sense leading [06:10] up to and on the holidays themselves. Um [06:14] especially since October 7th um not as [06:18] many soldiers are given leave on the [06:20] Jewish holidays. you know, on October [06:22] 7th on Simar. Many of the bases, [06:24] especially around Gaza, were left uh [06:27] with quite a number of soldiers, you [06:30] know, at home. It was a it was a [06:31] Saturday. It was a Shabbat. It was a it [06:34] was a holiday, the final holiday of this [06:36] holiday season. And we know also from [06:39] intelligence that um it was a [06:41] long-standing policy of Hamas to attack [06:44] uh Israel on one of the Jewish holidays [06:46] because originally um Pesak Passover [06:49] which is in April around April usually [06:52] had actually been the original date and [06:53] then was put off for various reasons. So [06:55] they chose another Jewish holiday. So [06:58] for pragmatic reasons that they know [07:00] that that's when Israelis will be a [07:03] little bit more distracted but also uh [07:05] according to many in the Israeli [07:07] government for religious reasons because [07:08] of a hatred for Jews and Jewish [07:10] festivals and Jewish tradition. Um [07:13] that's why Israel's enemies keep on [07:15] coming back to those sort of uh dates. [07:18] Um, moving closer to home in Gaza, there [07:21] was quite an extraordinary operation uh [07:23] in the last couple of days when special [07:26] forces um Israeli uh special forces led [07:30] by Shimet and the army basically went [07:33] into the middle of Gaza City and [07:35] kidnapped in broad daylight a very very [07:38] fascinating and daring uh raid to [07:41] capture Mo al-Aid who is a very senior [07:46] Hamas official and is head of internal [07:49] security. And of course, internal [07:51] security means that basically he runs [07:53] the Gaza strip. He's the one that Garins [07:56] fear. He's the one who makes sure that [07:57] people are loyal to Gaza uh to kamas and [08:00] anyone who isn't will be dealt with very [08:02] severely. A very hated man by the [08:05] average Gazin, especially those who have [08:08] who who don't like the kamas repressive [08:11] uh regime. And uh it really was quite a [08:14] historic event. the fact that Israel was [08:17] able to go not into Tokarum, not into [08:19] Ramala, not into uh Bethlehem and some [08:23] of the other cities in Judea and [08:25] Samaria, the West Bank, where is Israeli [08:27] soldiers have had I wouldn't say freedom [08:30] of action, but certainly if they believe [08:31] that there is a terrorist about to [08:33] commit an attack or a senior terrorist [08:36] that they could arrest, kidnap, whatever [08:39] you want to call it, you know, these [08:41] things happen relatively regularly, but [08:43] this is certainly the first time This [08:45] has happened where they went into the [08:47] Gaza city, the most populated area in [08:50] poor daylight, uh, and basically [08:52] kidnapped one of the most senior Kamas [08:55] generals off the street. It was a very [08:57] embarrassing moment for Hamas. At first, [08:59] they denied it. Then they said that [09:01] Israel wasn't able to get who they [09:03] wanted, so they took someone else. And [09:05] then when it was clear with the release [09:06] of photos that they actually got exactly [09:09] who they meant. Um you know again they [09:14] just decided to take another attack. But [09:16] this is a big blow for Hamas. Not just [09:18] because, as I said, the the Israeli [09:21] forces were able to come in broad [09:23] daylight in the heart of Gaza, in the [09:25] heart of Kamas controlled Gaza and take [09:28] one of their senior commanders, but also [09:31] >> [clears throat] [09:31] >> uh many Israeli security and [09:33] intelligence sources are saying he will [09:35] be an absolute treasure trove of [09:38] information about uh Hamas, what it's [09:41] doing, what its plans are, how it's [09:44] running the the strip with an iron fist, [09:46] etc. So this is a very big blow for [09:49] Hamas and uh and a very big win uh for [09:52] Israel this week. Um moving closer to [09:56] home internal politics uh there's a key [10:00] date coming up next week. I think it's [10:02] Tuesday where it's the final day to [10:05] submit um party lists uh for the [10:08] Knesset. And while that might be seem [10:11] like a relatively bureaucratic event, [10:13] it's actually a very important one [10:14] because [10:16] whatever happens after that day, you [10:18] can't change the lists. Any partnerships [10:20] you make between parties, between lists [10:24] has to happen uh before that day or on [10:26] that day. And um we've seen in the last [10:31] few days uh quite a lot of jockeying, [10:33] quite a lot of negotiations between [10:35] parties. There's been quite a lot of [10:37] talk from both sides of the political [10:39] spectrum, especially from the right-wing [10:42] ruling Kurdish and especially from Prime [10:44] Minister Netanyahu himself who's who's [10:46] tried to rally against what he calls [10:48] satellite parties. There's been a number [10:50] of right-wing parties um that aren't [10:53] expected to cross the electoral [10:55] threshold or are in danger of not [10:57] crossing it. and he knows that if he has [11:00] any chance of winning these elections, [11:02] he needs every single right-wing vote to [11:05] count. Uh, and he's basically been [11:08] calling out um many of those who he [11:11] believes are not partnering up when they [11:13] should be. Specifically, there was quite [11:15] a pylon on Itar Bengavir, the um the [11:19] leader of uh party because it was felt [11:22] that he should um reunite with Batal. [11:27] The two of them ran in the last [11:29] elections together [11:31] and they they did quite well at the [11:33] moment. Batalos Matri was you know sort [11:36] of skirting the threshold. Uh sometimes [11:39] under sometimes over and but if they [11:42] join together it would ensure that you [11:44] know there'll be no wasted votes in that [11:46] particular direction. Uh it being [11:49] basically resisted all this pressure and [11:52] it's saying at at this point at least [11:54] he's running on his own. Um and [11:57] Batalosmatri in in the end had to turn [12:00] to other avenues and turned to Mosha [12:03] Fagelin Zahood party um probably not [12:07] such a household name outside of Israel [12:09] but in Israel he's run quite many times [12:12] at first he was trying to run within the [12:14] liquid had won Knesset he actually sat [12:17] as a member of Knesset for liquid but [12:20] never really wanted him there and forced [12:23] him out and since then he's tried to run [12:25] under the Zoo party. There was an [12:27] election a few ago where he was polling [12:29] even as high as eight or nine at one [12:31] point and then basically dropped to [12:33] under the threshold when it mattered. Um [12:36] but the two of them together Moshafin [12:40] Hood and the Salmatric's uh religious [12:44] Zionist party are expected to cross the [12:46] threshold at least as of today. So we'll [12:49] have to keep an eye on that. But there's [12:50] certainly a lot of um talks going on as [12:54] we speak. Um a big question mark [12:57] especially as far as Prime Minister [12:58] Netanyahu is what are the intentions of [13:02] Offer Winter? Offer Winter is a bit of a [13:05] dark horse for Netanyahu. One he has [13:07] publicly backed him. Um he is the two [13:11] are not necessarily close. uh there is a [13:15] certain animosity uh between the two and [13:18] there's certainly a lack of trust. Um [13:21] another [13:23] person or another party which is also [13:26] flirting with the electoral threshold uh [13:28] in the most recent poll tonight is [13:30] expected to get four which is the [13:32] absolute minimum. If you don't reach [13:34] four then you don't get any because the [13:36] um the electoral threshold is 3.25. [13:39] So that means the minimum seats you can [13:41] have is four. If you don't reach 3.25 25 [13:44] all your votes are then uh thrown away. [13:47] So there is a bit of panic uh in the [13:49] liquid about all these uh smaller [13:51] parties and they themselves are trying [13:54] to see who they can join with. Winter [13:56] has a bit of a problem because he has um [13:59] said that he will not uh join with [14:02] anybody who is tainted by October 7th or [14:05] Israeli politics. He only wants to join [14:07] with um he only wanted on his list new [14:11] politicians, people who've never sat in [14:12] the Knesset or the government and he [14:15] said he will only join with parties that [14:17] have never done so as well, which leads [14:19] him leaves him with very very few [14:21] options. So it does seem either he's [14:23] going to run on his own or maybe be [14:26] joined by a significantly smaller party. [14:29] But there's talk of sort of mega parties [14:32] or not mega parties but mega small [14:34] parties Dan Edelstein Hendor [14:39] um and um Hilly tropa maybe Shan Kascal [14:43] there's lots and lots of parties which [14:45] are really anything from half a percent. [14:48] Bennett Gunce is between half a percent [14:50] and 1% if we remember. He was the the [14:53] king of Israeli politics not too long [14:54] ago and and now he barely gets, you [14:58] know, on the radar. Uh and there's quite [15:00] a few other smaller parties and a lot of [15:04] jockeying, a lot of negotiations, maybe [15:07] parties which are skirting the threshold [15:09] will just need that extra percent or two [15:11] from a very small party to get over the [15:13] line. doesn't always work that way [15:15] because you could lose support by doing [15:17] that, especially if they're not natural [15:18] allies. There's been talk of Giladan [15:21] joining with Benigans. Ideologically, [15:23] they're a little bit far away. Um, but [15:27] perhaps, you know, at the moment where [15:29] neither of them are uh are expected to [15:32] get more than a percent, maybe it's the [15:34] only uh chance that they can get. [15:37] One other major thing that's been on the [15:40] agenda this week is that sort of [15:43] one could argue conspiracy theories, [15:46] betrayal, etc., etc. It it all came up [15:49] when Sar Netany, the wife of the prime [15:52] minister, was invited for an interview [15:54] on channel 14. Channel 14 is very much [15:56] home tough for the Netany. They're [15:59] extremely extremely supportive of the [16:02] Netanyas and she would never appear on [16:04] any other news channel. And during it [16:07] she was asked about Y Golan uh the [16:09] leader of the Democrats party and she [16:11] made quite an astounding uh statement uh [16:15] which was basically how is it she asked [16:17] the question uh rather than making the [16:20] statement how is it that Yer Golan was [16:23] dressed and ready I should actually [16:25] preface this by saying that it's known [16:27] that Yer Golan on the day of October 7th [16:30] uh basically when he heard about what [16:32] was going on he got dressed in his army [16:34] clothes I mean he's an an older man, but [16:36] of a senior general or former senior [16:39] general. I'm not sure if he still does [16:41] reserves, but he basically got into his [16:44] uniform and went down and tried to uh [16:47] protect the people and uh was was very [16:50] involved on that day helping Israelis [16:53] who were caught up in the the massacre. [16:56] But Sarin Netinaro asked a question [16:58] which uh which basically how is it that [17:01] he knew what was going on uh even before [17:04] the prime minister. Basically, her [17:06] suggestion was that he had some inside [17:09] information and he already knew what was [17:12] happening way before anyone else. Um, [17:14] and the prime minister was not woken up [17:17] even before Y Golan obviously knew about [17:20] it. This speaks to a lot of um [17:23] conspiracies, let's put it that way, in [17:25] Israel that a the army knew about [17:29] October 7th and basically allowed it to [17:32] happen uh to embarrass Netanyahu. This [17:35] is something which is certainly [17:37] prevalent on the extreme right. Um and [17:41] and obviously Yay Golan uh being, you [17:44] know, pretty far left on the political [17:46] map is is is obviously an easy figure to [17:49] blame. There is no evidence that he knew [17:51] anything. In fact, he only went down an [17:54] hour and a half after the attack [17:56] started. That's all on record. But what [17:58] it does raise is really that whole issue [18:02] of who know who knew what and when. And [18:04] Netanyahu himself was forced to [18:08] um say on camera that he doesn't believe [18:11] that there was a conspiracy. He doesn't [18:12] believe that there was betrayal, but he [18:15] does believe that there was terrible [18:17] miscalculations. [18:18] Um and they didn't wake him up and it [18:21] was a major major failure. This is the [18:23] central question. Well, not the central [18:25] question, it's a major question of who [18:27] to blame for October 7th. Netanyao [18:29] claims, "If I would have been woken up [18:31] at three in the morning when the [18:32] discussions first came because of uh [18:35] some intelligence, they were reading [18:37] certain signs coming out of Gaza, I [18:40] would have immediately ordered a full-on [18:42] attack, etc., etc., uh, and it was just [18:45] the army who decided not to. He by [18:48] leaving it a little bit open, it leaves [18:51] it open to the the sort of betrayal [18:54] narrative or the conspiracy narrative. [18:57] And what this does, and this is the [18:59] whole debate this week, first of all, [19:01] was was this all scripted? Did Sarah Net [19:04] know exactly what she was going to say? [19:06] It was during a very softball interview. [19:09] Usually, these things are very very [19:11] highly tightly organized. I find it hard [19:14] to believe that this was just something [19:16] that Sarin decided to bring up just off [19:19] the cuff. Um, they wouldn't have allowed [19:22] her to interview without this being [19:25] carefully crafted. So what it does is it [19:29] really raises an issue that divides the [19:32] right from the left or at least some of [19:35] the supporters and some of the other [19:37] parties that Netanyahu is not to blame. [19:39] It's the army is to blame. This is a [19:41] narrative that Netanyahu himself talks [19:44] about regularly and this is very [19:46] important for him going into the [19:47] election especially an election very [19:49] soon after the anniversary of October 7 [19:52] where Israel Israelis will be talking [19:54] about this again. who really is to [19:57] blame? Obviously, those who are are [20:00] critical of Netanyahu will say, well, [20:02] it's not just October 7th. It's the fact [20:05] that, you know, Qatari suitcases were [20:08] allowed into uh uh Gaza basically to go [20:12] to Kamas. This was the prime minister's [20:13] policy. Um the idea, you know, Netanyahu [20:16] himself said only a few months before [20:18] that kamas are deterred and my main [20:20] focus is on Iran. There are many many [20:22] signs which the anti-NO camp would point [20:25] to and say okay maybe it is true that [20:28] you weren't woken up before 6:30 but it [20:31] was completely your policy as prime [20:33] minister which led to October 7th. His [20:35] argument will be uh no that's not true. [20:38] If I would have been woken up I would [20:40] have had a tough response. The fact is [20:43] on October 7th it did take quite a while [20:45] for the army to understand what's going [20:47] on and react and there's a lot of [20:49] questions that need to be asked and a [20:51] lot of neutrals will say okay I'm not [20:53] saying either narrative is 100% but [20:56] let's at least have a commission of [20:58] inquiry that's not going to happen [20:59] before the elections um and that would [21:02] clear up a lot of uh these issues but [21:05] obviously that in itself is political [21:07] and there's a major major debate about [21:09] that so the fact is that uh you know as [21:13] as as one political analyst said you [21:16] know in in campaigns especially in [21:18] Israel it's not really important what's [21:20] been said it's what's been talked about [21:22] and it seems to be clear that for [21:24] Netanyahu this seems to be a comfortable [21:26] area or let's say more comfortable [21:28] because for for quite a few weeks and I [21:31] think I've talked about this that he's [21:32] been clamoring for an agenda clamoring [21:35] for something that uh can work for him [21:37] on a plane that's comfortable for him [21:39] and he hasn't really found it you the [21:41] conscription issue is certainly a weak [21:44] spot for him, but the question of who's [21:46] to blame for October 7th and the fact [21:48] that the that the generals didn't wake [21:50] him up in time and the timeline [21:52] certainly does look it doesn't look [21:55] great for the army. Um, and so if we're [21:59] just talking about the morning itself, [22:01] then NetO certainly has a leg to stand [22:03] on. But if the opposition widen it and [22:07] start talking about okay the morning is [22:10] one thing what happened before the weeks [22:12] before the months before that is far [22:14] more uncomfortable for net. So the focus [22:16] on the morning what happened what didn't [22:18] happen is has been decided at least that [22:22] it's it's it's a it's a good issue it's [22:24] a good agenda and plays very much into [22:27] net's base. So, we'll have to see how [22:29] long this lasts, what legs it has. Um, [22:33] and uh, as I said, all eyes at this [22:36] point are on Tuesday where the lists [22:38] have to be presented, and then we'll [22:40] have a bit more of an idea of who's [22:42] running, who's partnering with who, and [22:44] then uh, we'll get a better idea of the [22:46] blocks, uh, the opposition block, the [22:49] coalition block, and even the third [22:51] block. And with that, I'm going to go to [22:53] some questions. [22:55] Uh Carrie Helibbran asks, "Winter stated [22:58] that as a precondition to join the [23:00] government coalition, universal draft [23:02] legislation must first be passed as this [23:05] is a non-starter mishas and united to [23:07] Judaism. Is there possibility that his [23:09] party would consider joining a [23:11] government headed by Eisenhot?" [23:12] Interestingly, uh Winter said he would [23:15] not um uh join a government headed by [23:19] Bennett Leeman because they sat with [23:20] Mahm Abbas. Um Eisen Cot um was not head [23:25] of a party. He didn't say Eisen Cot. Um [23:30] it's it it's an interesting one because [23:33] he hasn't just said I want that to be on [23:34] the agenda. He said I will only join a [23:36] government when they pass that [23:38] legislation. Uh and as we know the day [23:40] after elections or at least when [23:42] election results are are officially [23:44] recorded the Knesset is in session. But [23:47] it doesn't really work until a [23:49] government um has been founded. So it'd [23:53] be extremely unusual, maybe even [23:55] unprecedented for a law of such gravity, [23:59] of such importance will be passed before [24:01] even a government has been formed [24:03] because obviously you need coalitions, [24:05] you need coalition whip, you need to [24:08] work out who's going to vote, who's not [24:09] going to. up. Uh so it's a very [24:12] interesting uh point or position that [24:14] he's taken and it would certainly be [24:16] unprecedented uh on that. So it's [24:18] certainly something Shass United Judaism [24:21] would not support. Again, what does that [24:23] mean that the the devil's in the details [24:26] universal draft legislation? He has [24:28] never said to the best of my knowledge [24:30] that every sing [24:33] um person in Israel has to be drafted. [24:36] Perhaps there could be some leeway. [24:37] Perhaps there could be some uh people [24:40] who are left to uh uh learn uh Torah. Um [24:45] in fact, he's even negotiating with a [24:47] party, a new ultraorththodox party, [24:50] which is making some headway, which [24:52] basically says that those who are [24:54] learning full-time should continue, but [24:56] all those who are not should go to the [24:57] army. That's going quite far for [25:00] society, but not necessarily for the [25:03] rest of society. and the fact that he's [25:05] negotiating with them probably shows [25:07] that there is some leeway um to um his [25:11] cause. [25:13] Um Robert Davis asked, "Do you think [25:15] that the IDF will start to plan other [25:16] kidnapping, arrest key Hamas persons [25:19] rather than bombing those sites to kill [25:20] key enemies?" Well, it's all a matter of [25:23] um uh you know what what's available and [25:26] what's possible. At the end of the day, [25:28] if to do the operation today, you did [25:30] put uh at risk many many Israeli [25:33] soldiers. Um they decided that it was [25:36] worth the risk and in fact in the end [25:38] not a single Israeli soldier was [25:40] injured. So it was a very well-run [25:42] operation, a successful operation. Um, [25:46] and I think it will just depend um if [25:49] they can get in without too many risks [25:52] to Israeli soldiers or even uh you know [25:56] other factors then perhaps they'll do it [25:58] more but other times you know sometimes [26:02] you get information someone is somewhere [26:04] and they could move soon. So by the time [26:07] you you know organize an operation that [26:09] that target could have moved on. But [26:11] what it does show is capability and it [26:14] shows the idea of has a longer arm than [26:16] perhaps kamas thought and this will [26:19] certainly send shivers down the spy of [26:21] many senior kamas people and they'll [26:23] probably take even stronger measures to [26:27] uh to keep themselves um secreted away [26:31] in future. [26:32] Um [26:37] Barack Corkm asked, "Do you expect [26:39] things to go up in the territories [26:40] before the Israeli elections?" I think [26:43] um [26:45] is there going [clears throat] to be an [26:45] uptick in violence? Well, it seems to be [26:47] an uptick in violence. There has been a [26:49] a certain level of uh uh you know, [26:52] settler violence against Palestinians [26:54] and also Palestinians against Israelis. [26:57] Um it does serve the purpose of some in [27:01] the Israeli government. the more [27:02] right-wing elements will certainly not [27:05] come down too hard on settlers which may [27:08] be their if they themselves are not [27:10] necessarily going to vote for them. Uh [27:13] many of their supporters would want a [27:15] softer approach to uh settlers who are [27:18] involved in violence. So um probably [27:21] before the elections we're not going to [27:22] see too many large scale operations [27:25] against um uh you know violent settlers. [27:29] Um but probably um you know to show [27:32] their metal uh there might be more [27:34] operations against uh Palestinian [27:36] terrorists and Palestinian violence. Um [27:39] because at the moment the ones with the [27:41] keys is is a right-wing government. [27:45] Uh I think we have time for one more [27:48] question. Um, [27:53] Barbie Rambo, doesn't this prove that [27:55] Gaza will be a terrorism base until the [27:57] Hamas uh gardens are relocated and due [28:00] to return to settle Gaza? Um, I mean [28:03] that that's a very loaded question. Um [28:08] I can talk about it from a political [28:10] point of view that yes it is that issue [28:13] of uh voluntary immigration relocation [28:17] whatever you want to call it is coming [28:19] up again in the elections offer winters [28:22] has has approached the issue I think [28:24] Israel cats of the liquid has also [28:27] promising to facilitate as much as [28:29] possible but if they haven't been able [28:31] to do it in 3 years um they probably [28:34] won't be able to do it in another 3 [28:36] years. That's that's the truth of it. [28:38] And regardless of what people promise [28:40] pre-election, [28:42] um you know, that doesn't mean there's [28:44] actual viable plan for it. Um for all [28:47] those who say that there's going to be [28:49] some mass relocation [28:51] have to answer a simple question where [28:53] they going to go. Um there is a will in [28:57] Israel and in fact amongst gens [28:59] according to Isra [29:03] want to relocate. Now, that might be an [29:05] exaggeration. We don't know where he got [29:07] that number from, but we do know it is a [29:09] very high number. Um, and the fact is [29:12] Israel would be happy if they left, but [29:15] there's nowhere for them to go. The [29:17] world will not open their doors for [29:18] them. Egypt has built the biggest uh [29:22] sort of barrier, far bigger than [29:24] anything Israel's ever built uh to make [29:27] sure that no GS step foot on Egyptian [29:29] territory. And so then you the only way [29:32] uh gardens can get out is by air. Uh [29:35] there have been a number of um airlifts [29:39] if you want to call it or just you know [29:41] uh they they've gone down to a nearby [29:44] Israeli airport um and basically [29:47] traveled aboard. But we're talking about [29:49] small groups and it's usually ouched in [29:52] terms of medical reasons etc etc. But [29:55] the the tens of thousands the hundreds [29:57] of thousands etc. [30:00] are not going anywhere. Um, and there [30:02] will be no uh uh you know return to [30:06] settlement. It's it's not my opinion. I [30:08] just I just don't see it happening [30:10] regardless of how many people talk about [30:12] it. There's been no stomach for it even [30:15] from this the most right-wing government [30:17] there ever was and probably ever will [30:19] be. There doesn't seem to be too much of [30:21] a path for this government to return. [30:23] One never knows. up. Um so if this [30:25] government couldn't remove uh gardens or [30:29] allow them to uh to relocate or [30:32] immigrate themselves or to build um [30:35] Israeli settlements in Gaza, then no [30:37] government will do it. So I I don't see [30:40] uh that as a as a viable option despite [30:43] some election rhetoric around the issue. [30:45] And with that, I would like to thank you [30:47] again for your questions and your time [30:50] and uh look forward to seeing you next [30:52] week and have a good night from MSRA.
