Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So as this whole Iran [00:04] situation and now what has turned into [00:06] an Iran and Saudi Arabia Houthi Yemen [00:10] situation escalates and moves into the [00:13] next phase, a country that is of [00:16] critical importance is Iraq. and they [00:18] snuck back into the headlines this week [00:21] when uh Iraqi militias attacked Saudi [00:25] Arabia and damaged the East West [00:27] pipeline causing it to shut down. We're [00:29] going to get into that, but what I want [00:31] to do in this video is go through a [00:34] bunch of headlines of stuff that's been [00:35] going on in Iraq and things that are [00:37] happening in Iraq over the next few [00:39] weeks that are critical. And what I [00:42] believe is that the next phase of the [00:45] whole Middle East escalation uh is going [00:48] to end up bringing Iraq into center [00:51] stage. Okay. So let's set the stage for [00:53] everything. Let's first of all take a [00:55] look at a map just to understand the [00:56] strategic centrality of Iraq. Iraq [01:00] borders Jordan, Syria, Turkey, [01:05] Iran, [01:07] Kuwait, [01:09] Saudi Arabia. It has an opening onto the [01:12] Persian Gulf. I mean, just look at where [01:14] it's located and you can already see the [01:16] incredible strategic importance of this [01:18] country. Okay? And we know that it's [01:20] been a mess for many, many years. We [01:21] know about the whole ISIS thing. And we [01:24] also know that the Americans have had [01:26] forces there for almost entire almost [01:29] all of the last 23 years. There was a [01:31] brief period between 2011 and 2014 where [01:35] there wasn't much American presence [01:36] there, but pretty much the Americans [01:37] have been there continuously. When [01:39] people think of the term forever war, [01:42] the first thing they think of, rightly [01:44] so, is Iraq. Okay, so let's let's take [01:46] that off the off the screen and let's [01:48] hit the headlines. Baghdad confirms [01:51] attack on Saudi pipeline came from Iraq. [01:53] This is from a few days ago. This was [01:54] when uh so this is what I meant when [01:56] when it hit the headlines. Uh Iraq's [02:00] government confirmed on Saturday that [02:01] Friday night attacks on key Saudi oil [02:03] pipeline had been launched from Iraqi [02:05] territory. Riyad said it would not [02:07] retaliate, [02:09] stressing that it wanted to give Baghdad [02:11] an opportunity to take the necessary [02:13] measures. The Iraqi government dismissed [02:15] the military commander and the police [02:18] chief in Mysan province on the Iranian [02:21] border which has long been viewed as an [02:23] area where the Iranbacked Shiite [02:25] militias operate. So this guy wasn't [02:27] part of the militias but uh this was the [02:30] this was the way the Iranian government [02:32] kind of signaled that they were taking [02:34] action and showing that there are [02:36] consequences for allowing a strike from [02:38] their territory. [02:40] uh the popular mobilization forces an [02:42] alliance of Iranbacked Iraqi militias [02:45] denied any involvement. [02:48] Now to understand Iraq you have to [02:51] understand what the pop what the popular [02:53] mobilization forces are and it says here [02:56] an alliance of Iranbacked militias. What [02:58] is that Iraqi militias? But look what it [03:00] says in the next sentence. The militias [03:03] are formally part of Iraq's security [03:06] forces. [03:08] Wait a second. They're Iranbacked [03:09] militias in Iraq. They're backed by the [03:12] Iranians, but they're part of the Iraqi [03:15] security forces, but they're not the [03:16] Iraqis, but they aren't the Isra Iraqi [03:19] police. What exactly are they? [03:23] So, it says here that some of the groups [03:25] occasionally act independently. So, this [03:27] is what it is. There are all these [03:30] Shiite militias in Iraq. A lot of them [03:34] came into Iraq in the early days after [03:37] Saddam Hussein fell. They came in there [03:40] and they were part of the anti-ISIS [03:44] coalition, [03:46] various Iranbacked militias. Whenever [03:48] you hear about Iranbacked militias in [03:49] Iraq, [03:51] in an effort to kind of consolidate [03:54] everyone and and gain some control, they [03:57] were all [03:59] put together into this [04:02] coalition called the Popular [04:04] Mobilization Forces, and they're even on [04:06] the payroll of the Iraqi government. So, [04:09] they're kind of part of the Iraqi [04:11] security apparatus, but they kind of [04:13] operate independently. It's the best way [04:15] to describe it. US President Donald [04:17] Trump said Saturday that Iran was [04:19] probably responsible for the pipeline [04:21] attack while also seemingly downplaying [04:24] US and Saudi Arabia's conflict with the [04:26] Houthis. Okay, that's that. Now, Iraq [04:30] has been under pressure from Washington [04:32] to re in Iran aligned Shiite armed [04:36] groups, right? We know that. Just just [04:38] to review that this is just like in [04:41] Lebanon where the government is supposed [04:43] to be disarming these independent [04:45] Iranbacked militias. That's also [04:47] happening in Iraq. But in Iraq it's more [04:50] complicated because I mean it's not more [04:53] okay Lebanon's complicated too but [04:56] Lebanon is actually not so complex. It's [04:58] pretty straightforward. The Iranian [05:00] government is inept. The you knowbah is [05:04] stronger or has been in the past. It [05:06] still is kind of uh I mean is on the way [05:10] out. Israel's hammering them but the [05:12] Iran the Lebanese military does not have [05:14] the will. Maybe it has the the ability. [05:18] It's you know somewhat but it doesn't [05:19] really have the ability to do anything [05:21] about the Iranbacked. [05:26] So it's pretty straightforward there. In [05:27] Iraq, it's more complex because in the [05:30] Iraqi parliament, you have this Shiite [05:32] block that really controls the [05:35] government and they pretty much choose [05:38] who's going to be prime minister [05:40] and they also while not officially being [05:44] Iranbacked are kind of favorable to Iran [05:48] and they're again they're Shiites. So [05:51] these Iranianbacked militias are kind of [05:54] quasi, you know, part of the state [05:56] apparatus, but also independent. And the [05:59] Iraqi government is under pressure by [06:01] the Americans to disarm them. The [06:04] Americans also are planning to pull out [06:07] their forces. Trump has, you know, has [06:10] long talked about getting American [06:11] forces out of Iraq. the original reason [06:13] they went in there in 2014 when they [06:15] went back in uh and that's where they've [06:18] been since these 20 plus years I'm sorry [06:22] um the last 12 years of the 23 years [06:25] that they've been there. They've been [06:27] there ostensibly to defeat ISIS and [06:29] Trump has said that it's time to pull [06:31] out of Iraq. We don't need to be there. [06:33] End the forever war. And officially the [06:37] Americans are pulling out by September [06:39] 30th. But the Americans are insisting [06:42] that the Iraqi government disarm the [06:45] Iranianbacked militias before the [06:48] Americans pull out. Although the [06:49] Americans are are now saying that [06:51] they're going to pull out regardless, [06:52] we're going to get into some of that in [06:54] the rest of this video. [06:57] Okay. And some of these militias have [06:58] hit US linked targets in the region [07:00] since the United States and Israel [07:01] launched the war against Iran. Okay. Uh [07:04] this is and that was a headline from [07:06] just a couple days ago. This one is from [07:08] three days ago. [07:10] um four days ago, Iraqi military [07:12] commander dismissed following drone [07:14] attack in Saudi Arabia. So I just [07:15] discussed that this guy was fired, [07:18] right? And that's that uh that's that [07:19] story that he was he was fired for uh [07:23] you know for having the attack from his [07:25] from his territory. Okay. Iraqi Prime [07:28] Minister Ali al- Zahedi dismissed one of [07:30] the country's military commanders [07:31] following the drone attack. So that was [07:32] the way he responded showing that [07:34] there's accountability. Okay. Iran [07:37] linked drone attacks target Kurdish [07:39] opposition groups in northern Iraq. This [07:41] is from today. [07:43] So with everything going on with Iran, [07:46] right, they're they're being squeezed [07:47] out economically and the whole Straits [07:49] of Hormuz thing. Meanwhile, they have [07:51] been attacking with drones and missiles. [07:55] They've been attacking the Kurdish [07:58] opposition groups in northern Iraq [08:02] because they want to make sure that [08:04] those guys don't get any hopes of coming [08:07] across the border and and trying to be [08:09] part of some some action to take down [08:12] the regime. So while they're, you know, [08:15] they're they're operating this kind of [08:16] multi-layered strategy where they're [08:19] trying to hold on economically and [08:22] escalate things with the Houthis and [08:24] Babel Mandeb and put the squeeze on [08:26] Trump that way. But they're also and and [08:29] they're also attacking their opposition [08:31] the opp the the anti-Iranian [08:35] groups uh the anti-Iranian Kurds, you [08:38] know, Kurds in northern Iraq. So that's [08:41] also going on. So that's like an active [08:44] uh war zone. That's a kinetic war zone. [08:47] The the Kurdistan Freedom Party said one [08:49] of its headquarters was targeted in the [08:50] Kurdistan region of northern Iraq on [08:52] Tuesday night, last night. Okay. It was [08:55] the latest attack against Kurdish [08:57] Iranian opposition groups over the past [08:58] few days. Kamala factions of Iranian [09:01] Kurdish separatist groups have also been [09:03] targeted at least two times over the [09:05] past week. So you have anti-Iranian [09:07] militias, notably the Kurds, and you [09:10] also have pro-Iranian militias all [09:12] operating in Iraq. [09:16] This is from a few days ago. US [09:18] sanctions Iraqi paramilitary group. [09:21] Sobah [09:23] likeah in Lebanon is an Iranianbacked [09:25] group. They're in Iraq and the United [09:28] States announced new sanctions on them a [09:30] few days ago. The United States has [09:31] imposed sanctions against Katibbah, an [09:34] Iran aligned Iraqi paramilitary group as [09:36] part of an effort to disrupt financial [09:38] networks supporting Iran's regional [09:40] activities. The US State Department said [09:43] today the United States is taking action [09:44] under economic operation economic [09:46] outcasts targeting Katibbah [09:49] and the broader financial networks that [09:52] sustain Iran's campaign of regional [09:54] destab destabilization. The State [09:56] Department said Katzbah has rejected an [09:58] Iraqi government order requiring [10:01] paramilitary groups to disarm. So this [10:04] is an interesting move. Like the [10:05] Americans are they're about to pull out [10:07] of Iraq. There's a real fear that when [10:10] they pull out of Iraq, it's going to [10:12] embolden the Iranianbacked groups. And [10:14] mean so what are the Americans doing as [10:16] they're getting ready to do this? [10:18] They're also sanctioning these this [10:20] Iraqi paramilitary group trying to put [10:22] the squeeze on them. maybe try to get [10:24] them, coax them into keeping quiet or [10:27] disarming. I don't think it's going to [10:28] work. Um I should public service [10:32] announcement. We have a big trip coming [10:34] up March 7th through 14th in Israel. An [10:37] 8-day unique unique opportunity to tour [10:40] Israel on a trip that it will be [10:43] co-hosted by myself and Dr. David Worms [10:46] of the Center for Security Policy in [10:48] Washington DC. He's also with the [10:49] Jerusalem Center for for um uh for [10:53] foreign affairs. He is one of the [10:56] world's leading experts on the Middle [10:57] East. He has served in multiple White [10:59] Houses, National Security Council, State [11:01] Department, held many senior positions, [11:03] and uh I have weekly conversations with [11:06] him every Sunday. This week it was on [11:07] Tuesday because of the holidays, but uh [11:09] I have a weekly conversation with him on [11:11] the Israel 365 news channel, which you [11:13] should be subscribed to if you're not [11:14] already. You should go check that out. [11:16] We had a phenomenal conversation about [11:17] Saudi Arabia yesterday. Anyway, we're [11:20] hosting this trip March 7th through [11:22] 14th. It is a five-star VIP luxury trip [11:25] and it will include highlevel briefings [11:29] uh in key locations such as u the [11:32] Lebanese border, the Syrian border. [11:35] We're going to you know key strategic [11:36] areas in Judea and Samaria and along the [11:39] Gaza along the Gaza border. We're going [11:42] to be meeting with officials in the [11:44] Israeli government, in the IDF, leading [11:48] journalists. It's going to be a really [11:49] amazing, unique, once in a-lifetime [11:51] trip. If you're interested in this, [11:53] check out the link in the description of [11:54] this video. Israel behind the headlines [11:57] tour this coming March, March 7th [11:59] through 14th. Okay. Now, I mentioned [12:01] that the US is planning to pull out its [12:03] troops at the end of September. As the [12:06] last US troops pack up in Iraq, militias [12:08] signal their weapons will stay. This is [12:10] from AP uh yesterday. Two deadlines are [12:14] looming for Iraq at the end of the [12:16] month. The end of a decad's long US [12:18] military presence and the disarmament of [12:19] non-state armed groups. There's a lot of [12:21] good stuff in this AP story. So, we're [12:24] going to go through a fair bit of it. [12:25] The US withdrawal is underway, meaning [12:28] they've already started and officials [12:30] say that the hundreds of troops [12:32] remaining in northern Iraq will be out [12:34] by the September 30th deadline. So, the [12:36] Americans are adamant. They're pulling [12:38] their troops out once and for all from [12:39] Iraq by September 30th. The Iraqi [12:42] government has linked the US withdrawal [12:43] to an ultimatum for militias to lay down [12:46] their weapons, but most have indicated [12:48] they have no plans to do so. Does this [12:50] sound familiar? Iranianbacked [12:53] militias refusing to lay down their [12:55] weapons. This is kind of a theme in the [12:56] Middle East these days, isn't it? That [12:58] leaves a major questions about what the [13:00] day after will look like in Iraq. [13:02] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have [13:04] struck US- linked targets both inside [13:06] and outside of Iraq since the war began [13:09] February 28th. They've also coordinated [13:12] with Yemen's Houthi rebels to attack [13:14] Saudi Arabia as we saw last week. [13:16] Meaning with the Houthis at war with the [13:18] Saudis down near Baba Mandev, the Iraqi [13:21] militias have also been attacking Saudi [13:23] Arabia from the north. With the war [13:25] between the US and Iran raging, Thran is [13:28] unlikely to give up the leverage it has [13:30] in neighboring Iraq. Why would they why [13:33] would they tell their their proxies in [13:35] Iraq to disarm? US officials are [13:38] concerned about the militia's ability to [13:39] continue carrying out attacks, but not [13:42] enough to delay their withdrawal. [13:44] They're going ahead with it. [13:46] A US military official said the [13:48] withdrawal would be completed by [13:49] September 30th and the hundreds of [13:51] troops still present in northern Iraq [13:53] would mostly be redeployed to Jordan and [13:55] other countries in the region. Military [13:58] equipment, including air defense [13:59] systems, will also be removed. He spoke [14:02] on condition of anonymity because he was [14:04] not authorized to comment publicly. [14:07] Iraqi government officials have waffled [14:09] over whether September 30th is a hard [14:11] deadline for disarmament of militias or [14:14] merely the starting point for [14:15] negotiations. You see, now they're [14:16] playing games. It's just like in [14:18] Lebanon. They make agreements and then [14:19] they start to play games with them and [14:21] move the goalposts. The original [14:23] agreement was that the militias in Iraq [14:26] would be disarmed in advance of the [14:28] Americans withdrawing. [14:30] And then the Iraqi prime minister said, [14:33] "Well, you know, these militias aren't [14:35] going to they're not going to disarm if [14:37] the Americans are still there because [14:39] their whole premise for not wanting to [14:41] disarm is that their fight is that [14:42] they're the resistance against the [14:44] Americans. So, let's make it [14:46] simultaneous." And now they're saying [14:49] that, well, quote, there will be no [14:52] disarming of any groups by the 30th of [14:54] September. I'm sorry, this isn't the [14:55] government. This is an expert. Um, an [14:57] Iraqi analyst, Sajad Jiad, said there [15:00] will be no disarming of any groups by [15:02] the 30th of September. That's I mean, [15:03] that's for sure. It's not going to [15:05] happen. I think that's probably clear to [15:07] anyone who watches Iraqi politics with a [15:10] handful of less influential militias [15:12] having agreed to turn over their [15:15] weapons. The most powerful groups and [15:18] closest to Iran, Katibbah, Harakat [15:21] al-unjaba and Katib say al-Shuada have [15:24] rejected the prospect or set conditions [15:27] for disarming that they know the [15:29] government is unlikely to meet in the [15:30] near future. Meaning these groups are [15:32] saying we'll only disarm if. But the if [15:36] is never going to happen and I'll show [15:39] you what those what those conditions are [15:40] in a minute. After establishing these [15:42] parameters, discussions will focus on [15:44] regulating weapons, not surrendering [15:46] them. An official with one of the [15:47] Iranbacked Iraqi militia said, "There is [15:49] absolutely no decision among the [15:51] factions to surrender weapons. We and we [15:53] have not surrendered any weapons, [15:55] meaning they're just adamant. They're [15:56] refusing to lay down their weapons." So, [15:58] the way things are right now is the [16:00] Americans are going to pull out on [16:01] September 30th, and no one is going to [16:03] be disarming. A government official said [16:05] the government's strategy currently [16:06] focuses on bringing armed factions under [16:09] the control of the Iraqi military. [16:12] This is the game. Oh. Um, we need to [16:16] disarm these terrorist Iranbacked [16:18] groups. Well, actually, we're not going [16:19] to disarm them. We'll just incorporate [16:21] them into the Iraqi army. Already, many [16:24] of the militias are part of the of the [16:26] Popular Mobilization Forces. I talked [16:28] about them before. a coalition of armed [16:30] groups that is officially part of the [16:32] Iraqi armed forces, although the [16:34] individual militias often act on their [16:36] own. The official said the government [16:38] wants the armed factions to hand over [16:41] dynamic weapons, including missiles and [16:44] long range aircraft, to the central [16:46] leadership of the PMF, the popular [16:49] mobilization forces, and for the [16:51] individual factions to be dissolved and [16:53] placed under the command of the PMF and [16:55] the Iraqi army. In other words, they're [16:57] going to leave these Iranbacked [16:59] terrorist groups intact instead of [17:01] disarming them and then just just give [17:03] them Iraqi army uniforms and make them [17:06] like units within the Iraqi army. [17:10] This is going to end well, right? Iraqi [17:12] government spokesman Sabah al- Numan [17:14] said last week that discussions and [17:16] dialogues are ongoing and the file will [17:18] be resolved after the withdrawal of the [17:20] international coalition forces. Ah, [17:24] meaning they're not even going to be [17:26] resolve coming to whatever conclusion [17:28] until after the Americans are gone and [17:31] originally they were supposed to be [17:32] disarmed before it. Muhammad Assali, a [17:36] non-resident senior fellow at the [17:37] US-based foreign policy research [17:39] institute and an expert on Kurdish and [17:42] Iraqi affairs, noted that Iran and [17:44] affiliated groups have targeted other [17:46] locations in the Kurdistan region that [17:49] have not been related to the US troops [17:50] presence. [17:52] In other words, the claim by the [17:53] Iranianbacked groups is that they're [17:56] resisting the Americans, but they've [17:57] also been attacking the Kurds, as I [17:59] talked about. Those include basis of the [18:01] exiled Iranian Kurdish dissident groups, [18:03] energy facilities, and even the office [18:05] of the Kurdish region's prime minister, [18:07] Masur Barzani. The withdrawal will [18:10] expose the Kurdistan region even further [18:12] and make it an even easier target, he [18:14] said. So, you see what we're going to [18:17] see after the Americans pull out, these [18:20] Iranianbacked militias are going to [18:22] become more entrenched. None of them are [18:25] going to lay down their weapons. They're [18:26] going to end up on the payroll of the [18:28] Iraqi government, and the Kurds won't [18:31] have the Americans as their semi allies [18:34] there to protect them. there. It's going [18:36] to be open season on the Kurds, [18:38] especially because the Iranians in [18:40] Thran, the the regime is bombing the [18:43] Kurds and is wanting to make sure that [18:46] they don't get, you know, yippy and and [18:49] and they don't start coming across the [18:52] border into Iran. They want to keep [18:54] hitting them and keep them on their back [18:56] foot or wipe them out. And we're going [18:59] to see these Iranianbacked militias just [19:01] go after the Kurds. That's what's going [19:03] to happen. [19:04] Regional government officials declined [19:06] to comment, but Barzani has publicly [19:08] expressed anxiety. Yeah, he's the head [19:10] of the Kurds. He's the prime minister of [19:11] the Kurdish region, the prime minister [19:12] of this semi-independent Kurdish reason [19:15] region, and he's expressed anxiety that [19:17] the removal of US air defenses would [19:19] leave the area more vulnerable. I'll say [19:22] Newman said last week that the Iraqi [19:25] government was close to procuring new [19:28] air defense systems from South Korea, [19:30] Turkey, and the US. Hold on a moment. If [19:34] the Iraqi government's forces [19:38] are integrated with pro-Iranian [19:42] Iranianbacked militias, they're part of [19:45] the Iraqi military [19:48] and the Iraqi and the majority in the [19:50] Iraqi government is Shiite and kind of [19:53] allied with Iran [19:55] and now they want to get new air [19:57] defenses. [20:00] Now we get to where this matters for [20:02] Israel. See, let me go back to that map [20:04] and show you something. [20:09] You see where Iraq is? So, when Israel [20:13] flies air sorties to attack Iran, as [20:16] they did in the 12-day war and in the [20:19] beginning of this war from February 28th [20:21] till April 8th, they fly their their [20:24] those flights go [20:27] across Syria, Iraq, and into Iran. The [20:31] only way for Israel to get to Iran is [20:32] through Iraq. [20:35] So if the Iraqi [20:37] military starts rebuilding air defenses, [20:41] that poses a direct threat to Israel's [20:43] ability to operate. [20:45] And just like in Syria, if you you [20:49] remember over the last uh it happened [20:51] last month, but it's also happened a few [20:53] times since the Assad regime fell where [20:55] when when the Turks together with uh the [20:59] new Syrian leader Ashara have tried to [21:03] rebuild Syrian air defenses, the [21:05] Israelis have gone in and taken them [21:06] out. [21:08] the Israelis are are um [21:12] determined to maintain their air [21:14] superiority and their freedom of [21:16] operation in the air over the whole [21:18] region. So, this is a red flag to me if [21:22] the Iraqis are now working on securing [21:24] new air defenses. [21:27] Um anyway, that's an interesting uh you [21:30] know, buried at the in the final [21:32] sentences of this article. He told the [21:34] Associated Press that the new systems, [21:36] the new air defense systems will be [21:38] deployed according to carefully devised [21:40] military plans to ensure the complete [21:42] protection of Iraqi airspace. [21:45] Hello. Limiting the Israelis. So that's [21:49] something to watch as we as we move [21:51] forward in this. Iranbacked Iraqi [21:53] militias escalate demands ahead of the [21:55] disarmament deadline. So what are their [21:56] demands? [21:58] Um here are their demands. I mentioned [22:01] that they have demands. Iranianbacked [22:02] militias such as such as Katahu [22:05] Jaba and Katib [22:08] Shuada have made a series of demands as [22:10] the deadline looms including the [22:12] withdrawal of US and Turkish forces from [22:14] Iraq as well as the end of all US [22:17] political influence. There's a lot of US [22:20] political influence in Iraq and they [22:21] want the US out. They also demand the [22:25] dismantling of the PKK, that's the [22:27] Kurds, and the deployment of the Iraqi [22:29] army within the Kurdistan region. They [22:32] basically want to wipe out the [22:34] independence of the Kurds, as well as [22:36] the acquisition of missile and air [22:38] defense systems. They want these these [22:40] Iranianbacked groups want their own [22:43] missile and air defense systems capable [22:45] of protecting Iraqi airspace. [22:48] meaning they want to be able to protect [22:50] their Iranianbacked militias. They want [22:54] uh uh they want air defenses so that [22:57] they can they can protect Iran from the [23:01] Israelis flying overhead. That's what [23:03] they want. [23:05] Okay. The demands indicate that the [23:07] issue is no longer solely focused on [23:08] disarmament, but as part of a broader [23:10] political security equation in Iraq. [23:13] September 30th is also the date [23:15] scheduled for the departure of all [23:16] coalition forces from Iraq after 23 [23:19] years. The US has pressured Iraq to [23:21] complete the disarmament of militias in [23:23] the country before coalition forces [23:25] withdraw. [23:27] And we also see increased cooperation [23:30] between the Iranians and the Iraqis. [23:32] Iran news 49 Iranians to be extradited [23:35] from Iraq via meron crossing. This is [23:37] from yesterday. meaning there's we see [23:40] cooperation between the governments that [23:42] there are Iranian prisoners in Iraqi [23:45] prisons who uh who are being sent back [23:48] to Iran to carry out uh to serve the [23:52] rest of their terms. And here's an [23:53] interesting piece of analysis from Arab [23:55] News, their Japan edition, why Iraq's [23:59] militias will keep their weapons. And [24:01] Osama al- Sharif wrote this. He says a [24:03] few very interesting things. Um, he [24:06] says, of course, that Iran doesn't want [24:07] to give up on its resistance factions, [24:10] that its resistance militias, its proxy [24:13] network, and why should they? Meanwhile, [24:16] the pro- Iranian militias have issued [24:17] their own demands. We know what the what [24:19] the demands are. We just read them. [24:23] And the the threat here is how much [24:26] allegiance they have to Thran. This [24:28] leaves the Iraqi government in an [24:29] impossible position with no realistic [24:32] options. Iraqi officials, including the [24:34] country's national security adviser, [24:36] have suggested a plan in which the US [24:38] leaves as scheduled on the premise that [24:40] a comprehensive mechanism for handling [24:42] weapons will be negotiated later. That [24:45] means the September 30th deadline will [24:47] pass with the disarmament question [24:49] unresolved. [24:51] Today, Tehran's influence runs through [24:53] most Shiite parties, which is most of [24:55] Iraq, senior security portfolios, and a [24:58] handful of militia networks. In other [24:59] words, the Iranians have influence in [25:02] every aspect of the majority of the [25:04] Iraqi government. Disengaging from Iran [25:07] would require dismantling the same [25:09] system that keeps the ruling class in [25:12] power. That could that alone could [25:14] trigger civil wars and spread chaos for [25:17] years. The dysfunctional system has [25:19] become a sort of Gordian knot for Iraq. [25:22] It is to be noted that every Iraqi [25:24] government since 2003 has ultimately [25:27] accommodated Iranian influence. rather [25:29] than confronted it. What we can expect [25:32] then is a deadline the US is most likely [25:36] to honor. The US will leave by September [25:38] 30th. Trump is determined to get out of [25:40] there, but it could cause chaos [25:44] for its own strategic reasons. The US is [25:46] going to leave, but that misses the goal [25:47] of disarming the militias. Washington [25:49] will note Baghdad's stated commitment to [25:51] a comprehensive mechanism for [25:53] disarmament, but the government will [25:54] struggle to implement it. In other [25:56] words, the Americans are going to pull [25:57] out. The Trump administration will say, [25:58] "Oh, yeah, yeah, the Iraqi government is [26:01] working this out. They're going to [26:02] disarm them." But it won't happen. In [26:04] the end, the factions will keep their [26:06] illegal weapons and boast about their [26:08] allegiance to Iran while rejecting the [26:10] government's authority. And when another [26:13] regional crisis erupts involving Iran, [26:16] the same armed groups will still be [26:18] standing exactly where they are now, [26:21] outside the state's control, inside [26:23] Iraq's borders, and answering mainly to [26:26] Thran. Folks, I'm going to sum this up [26:28] another way for you. When the Americans [26:32] pull out on September 30th, these [26:34] Iranianbacked militias are going to [26:37] declare victory. It's going to be like [26:38] the pull out from Afghanistan. They're [26:40] going to declare victory. They're going [26:41] to say, "Look at that. The Americans [26:42] have pulled out. The Americans are weak. [26:44] They've withdrawn." They're going to [26:46] view it as an implementation of Iran's [26:49] policy of wanting to get the Americans [26:51] out of the region. They're going to [26:52] they're going to view it as as a victory [26:55] for their side. it's going to embolden [26:57] them more and more to more and more [26:59] anti-American, anti-western activity, [27:02] attacking more American allies. Uh, and [27:06] Iraq is already becoming a central [27:09] theater, and it's only going to [27:12] intensify in the weeks between now and [27:15] September 30th. That's what we can [27:17] expect going forward. Look, I I get a [27:19] lot of comments from people who watch [27:21] this channel and it means a lot to me, [27:24] you know, suggestions people make, but [27:26] the comment that means the most to me [27:28] and I hear it all the time, both in the [27:30] comment section in these videos, but [27:32] also when I meet people or sometimes [27:33] people reach out to me in other ways and [27:36] they say to me that they feel that [27:38] because they watch this channel, they [27:40] are far better informed about everything [27:43] going on in the Middle East than [27:44] everyone else they know. And uh that [27:47] means a lot to me. That's what I'm [27:48] trying to do here is to is to is to [27:50] educate everyone to educate us about the [27:53] big picture of what's going on to be [27:55] able to see things from the different [27:56] angles and un and and keep track of all [27:59] the different arenas so that we really [28:01] have a comprehensive understanding of [28:03] what's happening in the Middle East. So, [28:06] thank you all for watching. It means so [28:07] much to me when you comment. Please do [28:09] so. I read as many of the comments as I [28:11] can and please tell other people about [28:13] what we're doing here on this channel [28:14] and you really are the most the best [28:16] informed audience when it comes to the [28:18] Middle East. So remember that. God [28:20] bless.
