Transcript [00:00] Welcome to another Israeli Insider with [00:02] me, Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle [00:05] East Forum Israel's office. Um, as [00:08] usual, I will talk for around 15 to 20 [00:10] minutes [00:11] on uh some of the uh uh [00:14] pressing issues of the day and then uh I [00:17] will open it up for your questions. [00:20] Please, as I always say, [00:22] there's always one who doesn't do it. Uh [00:24] please put your questions in the Q&A box [00:26] at the bottom, not in the chat. There's [00:29] always one or two in the chat and I am [00:32] not able to get to it um because I don't [00:34] look there. I only look in the Q&A. You [00:37] can put your questions there any point [00:39] during my remarks or even during the [00:41] questions [00:42] themselves. Um [00:45] So, we're going to start today with what [00:47] Treasury US Treasury Secretary Scott [00:50] Bessent called economic D-Day, [00:53] which ostensibly is supposed to end the [00:55] war by other means. Uh we heard this [00:57] week also Secretary of State Marco Rubio [01:00] say that there will not be any further [01:04] uh military attacks on uh Iran. [01:08] The most important thing from the quote [01:10] that I saw is at the moment I I think he [01:13] started it for now at the moment. [01:15] So, there was some equivocation there. [01:18] Some analysts decided that was it. [01:21] There's never going to be any any other [01:23] attacks. [01:24] I'm not one of those who believe that [01:26] absolutely the door has completely [01:28] closed. I think it's closed for now. [01:31] They're trying to calm the markets, [01:32] especially the oil market, especially [01:34] ahead of the midterm elections. [01:37] Um so, the goal at this point is to try [01:40] and [01:42] calm things economically while uh [01:46] continuing to have sort of the American [01:49] boot on the Islamic regime's neck. And [01:53] what they've decided to do is ramp up [01:55] the economic sanctions, the economic [01:57] warfare. [01:58] Uh and they'd given an interesting [02:01] warning to the world that any country or [02:04] entity which um is involved in I think [02:07] five or six major Iranian industries [02:10] will then be subject to sanctions and [02:12] boycott from the US itself. [02:15] It's a very heavy threat. Uh ameliorated [02:18] slightly by [02:20] the uncertainty exactly when the boycott [02:24] itself of the sanctions itself comes in. [02:26] Questions were asked, [02:28] "When is it happening? And why isn't it [02:30] immediate?" And [02:32] uh Secretary Bessemer basically [02:33] answered, "You know, you have to give um [02:36] entities and countries time to [02:39] um move elsewhere to get their [02:41] product elsewhere." [02:43] Um which kind of gives it [02:45] gives it a a you know, it it takes away [02:48] certain amount of its teeth, especially [02:50] as [02:51] um there was no specific time. Are we [02:53] talking about days? Are we talking about [02:54] weeks? Are we talking about months? What [02:56] is expected is probably the sanctioning [02:58] of a major entity in the coming days, [03:01] perhaps weeks, that will send a chilling [03:04] message to all those who think that um [03:08] this is just just a statement without [03:11] any teeth. Uh but we'll have to wait and [03:12] see exactly how long this grace period [03:17] uh lasts. Most importantly, and we've [03:18] seen before when when the US puts [03:20] sanctions on countries, especially Iran, [03:23] there seems to be waivers. Um Chine [03:25] China [03:27] has received uh waivers in the past. And [03:30] China itself, how much will they take [03:32] this seriously because the the economic [03:34] relationship with China is supreme. [03:36] That's the key to everything, and we [03:39] know that there's been [03:41] um an important shadow economy from Iran [03:44] where much of it seems to travel back [03:46] and forth towards China. [03:48] Uh we'll have to see how much of that is [03:50] checked because the Iranians over the [03:52] years, as a result of the sanctions, [03:54] have become absolute experts in running [03:56] a shadow economy, trying to get through [03:58] sanctions regimes, [04:00] etc. etc. [04:02] The question it [04:04] remains is for Israel, what does this [04:07] mean? Well, for quite a while, [04:10] uh since the end of militrations, there [04:13] has been the school of thought that the [04:15] best possible scenario, realistic, let's [04:18] put it, the best realistic possible [04:20] scenario is a situation where there's no [04:23] war, no deal. Obviously, the Israeli Air [04:26] Force still has a bank, [04:28] a very long bank of targets in Iran that [04:31] it would like to be able to target, but [04:33] it understands until President Trump, if [04:36] and when President Trump decides [04:39] military operations have resumed, uh [04:41] it's just going to have to remain just [04:42] that, a bank of targets. But, there was [04:45] certainly great worry in the security [04:47] establishment about the original MOU, [04:50] um and the deal that seemed to be taking [04:53] shape between Iran and the US. Uh at the [04:56] moment, that seems to be uh rent [04:58] asunder. It doesn't seem to even be in [05:00] play. There's probably always some level [05:03] of back level channels, whether through [05:05] Pakistan, whether through Qatar, or [05:07] other intermediaries, but at the moment, [05:09] it doesn't seem like either side are [05:12] pushing for resumption of talks, at [05:14] least not openly or bilaterally [05:17] at this point. And so, we're in a [05:19] situation of no war, no deal, which is [05:22] probably preferable for many Israeli [05:24] decision-makers, [05:26] because obviously, uh a deal would be [05:28] very bad. It would give Iran an economic [05:31] lifeline. It would allow them [05:34] uh to maybe continue their ballistic uh [05:36] weapons program, perhaps even some level [05:39] of [05:39] um Iranian enrichment. There was a big [05:41] debate exactly what that would look like [05:44] and how much and where it would take [05:45] place, etc., etc. So, all these things [05:48] made Israeli uh decision-makers, [05:51] security experts, very nervous. So, the [05:54] fact that at this point in time, there's [05:56] no war, no deal is something the [05:57] Israelis can live with. And while there [06:00] is no war, no deal, the, as I said, the [06:02] American boot remains on the Islamic [06:05] regime's neck, especially economically. [06:07] And there has been quite a number of [06:11] intelligence analysts in Israel [06:14] and other analysts who have [06:16] suggested that there is a strong [06:18] possibility that the because of severe [06:21] economic um attacks, the Islamic regime [06:26] might not have that much time. We know [06:29] that um [06:30] gas stations across the country are [06:33] struggling. Many are shut. This is going [06:37] to be a major challenge for the Islamic [06:39] regime that was always that was already [06:42] facing massive massive inflation, major [06:45] economic challenges. And now, on top of [06:47] this, really a whole another layer of [06:51] economic sanctions. And if these ones [06:54] are fulfilled, then it will be a major [06:57] challenge to the [06:59] ongoing stability, one way or another, [07:01] of the Iranian regime. So, we'll have to [07:05] keep an eye on that. But certainly, this [07:06] is a a great challenge. I wouldn't be [07:08] surprised if in the coming days, we [07:11] start hearing again that the Iranians [07:13] want some sort of a deal. But you know, [07:15] back channels are becoming a little bit [07:17] more frantic, frantic, I should say. [07:21] Um so, we'll have to wait and see [07:23] exactly what's going on there. On a [07:25] related um topic, um [07:29] there seems to be in Lebanon, [07:33] I wouldn't say necessarily the conflict [07:35] there coming to an end, but certainly [07:37] Israel at this point in time is trying [07:39] to [07:40] uh get to a point. It's called the Ali [07:44] Taher Ridge. It's an extremely important [07:48] strategic point in Lebanon held by [07:50] Hezbollah that basically looks down on [07:53] many key roads, key infrastructure, [07:57] and was held by Hezbollah for, you know, [08:00] decades. Now Israel is very very close [08:03] to [08:04] conquering that, and underneath it [08:07] are many Hezbollah terrorists and even [08:10] Iranian advisers from the Revolutionary [08:13] Guards. [08:14] Different estimates are between 20 and [08:17] 60, depending who you ask. But the [08:20] crucial thing is at the moment they [08:22] can't get out. Israel [08:24] took them by surprise basically after [08:26] the most recent [08:28] Israeli soldier was killed. This gave [08:30] them the excuse to [08:32] move forward quickly because there was [08:34] an understanding that neither side [08:37] should really move from their positions. [08:39] But once once [08:41] Hezbollah openly attacked [08:45] IDF positions and actually killed a [08:46] soldier, that gave [08:48] Israel the causes belli to go forward [08:52] quickly [08:53] and take this ridge. [08:56] And we'll have to wait and see exactly [08:58] what's going to happen. But what the [09:00] plan seems to be is once they've got rid [09:03] of [09:04] these Hezbollah and Iranian [09:06] terrorists underneath and taken that [09:08] area, which as I said is a major [09:11] Hezbollah stronghold, perhaps that is [09:14] going to be as far advanced north as [09:16] possible that they're going to push for [09:17] because this is very far advanced north. [09:20] This is the furthest position the IDF [09:22] have taken in this round of fighting. [09:25] And then start not necessarily a [09:28] retreat, but again a more serious pilot [09:31] scheme where they can see if the [09:33] Lebanese forces can and will move into [09:37] areas vacated by the IDF, rid them of [09:40] any sort of leftover Hezbollah [09:43] infrastructure, most importantly hold [09:45] it, and make sure that Hezbollah do not [09:47] return. [09:49] And basically take over that area. So, [09:51] it does [09:53] it it it it [09:54] it's also very [09:56] important balancing out because again [09:59] with the Iranian in in mind [10:02] with the assessment that there are [10:03] significant Iranian officials underneath [10:06] the ridge, [10:07] Israel does not want necessarily to do [10:10] what it has done in the past, and [10:12] basically it can conquer the region, [10:15] kill all those underneath in in very [10:17] quick time, but that might [10:21] escalate the situation. The Iranians [10:23] would see that as a direct attack, use [10:25] that as an excuse to attack. Israel [10:27] Israel would attack back, and obviously [10:29] that's something the US does not want to [10:31] see. So, at the moment the IDF is going [10:34] slow and subtle. Not to say that they [10:36] cannot and will not attack and kill the [10:39] Hezbollah and Iranian advisers, but it [10:43] will not be done [10:44] in a way that could inflame the [10:46] situation. That's definitely something [10:48] the Americans will not want. They do [10:50] understand Israel's position here, and [10:52] they've given them quite a lot of [10:53] leeway, especially after the killing of [10:56] an IDF soldier. [10:57] So, have to see how this works out, but [11:00] it does seem that we're coming towards [11:03] the final [11:05] push [11:06] north [11:07] for the IDF, and we'll have to see what [11:09] happens for them. [11:12] Closer to home, there's been quite a lot [11:14] going on in the political field. We're [11:16] now 13 days away from the [11:19] the official [11:22] registration of all the party list. [11:24] Basically, every party that's going to [11:26] run, [11:27] not only do they have to register now, [11:29] in 13 days time they have to register [11:33] the candidates for Knesset. And why this [11:37] is important is because after that date, [11:40] parties then won't be able to merge [11:41] lists, [11:42] join together partnerships, etc., etc. [11:46] And there's a lot of parties entering [11:48] almost every day, and I'll explain why [11:51] this is important in a in a minute. But [11:54] basically, the next 13 days will be rife [11:56] with speculation, who's going to join [11:58] who, who's, you know, seeking [12:01] partnerships here, there, and [12:02] everywhere. [12:03] This week, we had the emergence not the [12:06] biggest surprise of a party called Am [12:09] Chai Yisrael, the people of Israel, by [12:13] a former senior IDF [12:15] officer called Ofer Winter. Ofer Winter, [12:17] for those who don't know, [12:20] became a controversial figure in Israel. [12:22] I think it was in 2013-2014 [12:25] when there was an operation against [12:27] Hamas in Gaza. He sent off his troops [12:30] into war with what was considered at the [12:32] time an overtly religious message [12:34] involving the Shema prayer and say that, [12:37] you know, our enemies are the enemies of [12:39] God, etc., etc. That was considered [12:41] extremely controversial at the time, and [12:43] Ofer Winter, who was a rising figure in [12:46] the IDF, he himself thought that he [12:51] would never get any higher rank, and he [12:53] never got any higher rank as a result of [12:55] his religious [12:57] convictions, his ideological beliefs. He [12:59] is considered pretty right-wing. And he [13:03] became a bit of a rallying figure for [13:05] the right-wing religious, [13:07] and someone who had been made a, [13:09] you know, sort of a martyr that because [13:12] of his right-wing religious beliefs, he [13:14] was never able to progress [13:16] to the upper echelons, the highest [13:18] echelons in the IDF. So, he was always a [13:20] popular figure, and yesterday he [13:23] launched his party. [13:25] Interestingly enough, it's the only [13:27] party, [13:28] um, a serious party that at the moment [13:30] is crossing the threshold, where every [13:33] single member of the list is a brand new [13:35] political figure. [13:36] Um, there's no other list like it. [13:38] There's all the established lists, and [13:39] all the newer lists are basically, at [13:41] the moment, populated by people who've [13:43] run before, have held office, et cetera, [13:46] et cetera. Ofir Winter made a point of [13:48] saying, "I don't want anybody who is [13:50] tainted by office, especially uh, [13:53] October uh, 7th, et cetera." So, he's [13:56] got a brand new list. It's an [13:57] interesting list. [13:59] Um, [14:00] but what the first polls have shown [14:02] since he entered the race is actually [14:04] he's hurting the Netanyahu bloc because, [14:07] um, [14:08] his entrance into the race has pushed [14:11] Betzalel Smotrich, who took quite a [14:13] number of months to even get over the [14:15] threshold, has now been pushed back [14:17] down, [14:18] uh, below it. Partly, in in great part [14:20] because they are really, uh, aiming at [14:23] the same territory. Both Smotrich and [14:25] Winter [14:27] are looking at the same right-wing [14:28] religious um [14:30] population. And Ofir Winter, as I said, [14:33] is is new. He's, um, [14:36] as I said, he's got a good reputation. [14:37] Smotrich, [14:39] um, [14:39] you know, has sat in the government. [14:41] Many of his followers are not happy [14:43] about the fact that he allowed, uh, some [14:46] of the things to do with the [14:47] ultra-Orthodox community over the last [14:48] government. So, actually the emergence [14:51] of Ofir Winter, who is a should be a [14:52] clear ally of the right-wing religious [14:55] coalition, actually hurts the right-wing [14:57] religious because in passing the [14:59] threshold, he's pushed another party [15:01] below it, and perhaps even some others [15:03] further away from, [15:05] uh, the the threshold. This has been [15:08] This is becoming a a major problem for [15:10] Netanyahu, and has caused him to come [15:12] out this week in a video that he [15:14] released, [15:15] where basically he called on the public [15:17] not to support any of these what he [15:19] called splinter parties, satellite [15:21] parties, these smaller, uh, parties [15:24] which are just going to eat your vote. [15:26] Some of them are not going to pass the [15:27] threshold and so far the party of Gideon [15:29] Sa'ar, the party of Yisrael Beiteinu and [15:32] Tzipi Hotovely and some others [15:35] are not going to pass the threshold and [15:37] if you vote one of these parties your [15:39] your vote pretty much gets wasted. [15:41] There's others, there's Moshe Feiglin, [15:43] there's a few other parties and this [15:46] really hurts Netanyahu's chance of even [15:49] getting closer. Not only closer to the [15:51] 61 himself which at this point is highly [15:54] unlikely, but in preventing the [15:56] opposition from themselves getting to 61 [15:59] and they are getting closer and closer. [16:02] Um but he also has another problem [16:05] Netanyahu is the personal relations [16:08] between Ofir Winter and Netanyahu are [16:12] not good. I've heard this from many [16:13] insiders. Although ideologically as I [16:16] said Ofir Winter [16:18] um would fit very nicely in a right-wing [16:20] uh religious coalition and behind the [16:23] scenes they're trying to reassure [16:24] Netanyahu that they would propose him [16:27] for prime minister. He himself has not [16:29] publicly said that. He said he would [16:31] he's right-wing, he's religious, he [16:32] supports right-wing religious coalition [16:34] but he has not said those words that [16:36] Netanyahu just wants to hear that he [16:38] would only support a Netanyahu led [16:41] coalition because that obviously could [16:44] be a game-changer because [16:46] he Winter as well as taking votes from [16:49] Smotrich, he also is going to take some [16:52] votes from right-wing figures in the [16:54] opposition like Lieberman, like Bennett, [16:56] perhaps some others. [16:58] Um so if they can manage to um [17:01] get him and Smotrich over the line, that [17:04] could be significant. And what [17:07] Netanyahu is going to try and do over [17:09] the next 13 days, remember that 13-day [17:11] deadline, is trying to put as many [17:13] parties as possible together or [17:16] alternatively trying get as many parties [17:19] out of the race. Obviously, he's happy [17:21] if there are smaller satellite parties [17:23] in the opposition, but in in his side of [17:26] the spectrum, where there seems to be [17:28] quite a lot, [17:29] uh because there's quite a lot of [17:31] disappointment, disillusion, and after [17:33] the the so-called most right-wing [17:35] government in history, [17:37] um it's it's going to hurt him. And uh [17:40] so what he's trying to do is he's trying [17:42] to put them together. At one point, he [17:44] even offered some of these players like [17:46] Offer Winter a place a a a secured spot, [17:49] and we know Netanyahu has eight secured [17:51] spots. Uh he was going to offer him and [17:53] maybe one other of his people a secured [17:56] spot. Offer Winter said no, and this [17:59] week he uh started the campaign trail [18:02] himself. So, there's a lot going on, and [18:05] Netanyahu apparently ostensibly is [18:07] also starting to think what he should do [18:10] if he doesn't get that 61, and in fact, [18:13] the other side doesn't get the 61, and [18:15] he's starting to put together an idea of [18:18] how to convince [18:20] perhaps the leader of the opposition, [18:22] and perhaps the part the the the leader [18:24] of [18:25] uh the party which receives the most [18:26] votes, which will almost certainly be [18:29] Gadi Eisenkot, how to go into rotation [18:31] leadership uh to ensure that he remains [18:34] in the premiership. There's obviously a [18:36] lot of challenges there. First of all, [18:38] there's no love lost between them. Uh [18:40] Gadi Eisenkot also saw [18:43] that when uh there was a rotation uh [18:46] leadership between Netanyahu and Gantz, [18:49] I mean, everybody pretty much knew that [18:50] Gantz would never sit a day uh in the [18:53] Prime Minister's office. The only person [18:54] who didn't seem to see that is Benny [18:56] Gantz himself. Um and this has happened [18:59] in in on other occasions. Uh Netanyahu [19:02] doesn't have a good record. There's very [19:04] little trust with Netanyahu. So, what it [19:07] has been proposed, and there were a lot [19:09] of drawbacks and challenges to it, is [19:11] perhaps an agreement whereby I think [19:14] it's next year or the year after there's [19:16] going to be elections for a new [19:18] president. President Herzog will end his [19:21] term and there's only one term for [19:22] president. And that could be the time [19:25] that Netanyahu [19:27] will [19:28] agree to be president [19:31] in exchange for handing over the keys to [19:34] the the prime ministership. These are [19:36] all things that have been discussed, but [19:37] it just goes to show that Netanyahu is [19:40] highly concerned about his place in the [19:42] polls, about what they're showing, and [19:45] these things are all going to be um [19:47] are going to be discussed. And as I [19:50] said, the next 13 days are extremely [19:52] crucial [19:53] because we'll get a better sense whether [19:55] Netanyahu does have a a path to victory, [19:59] and if not, what he has to do to ensure [20:01] the other side doesn't have their path. [20:04] And with that, I'm going to go to the [20:06] questions. [20:08] Ari Heeler-Bryant asks, "How do you [20:09] assess the new political party of Winter [20:11] and Hadad will impact on the upcoming [20:14] elections?" Well, it's not just Winter [20:16] and Hadad. Those are number [20:18] one and two. Yossi Hadad, for those who [20:20] don't know, [20:21] is an Arab Israeli Arab who's who's a [20:24] proud Israeli proud Zionist who's done a [20:27] lot in Hasbara Israel advocacy over the [20:30] last few years, become a very popular [20:32] figure on the right, and he is number [20:34] two. And in fact, um [20:37] if they get in and and he's in the [20:39] government, he could be the first [20:41] Arab in [20:43] Israel's security cabinet. That's [20:44] something that Excuse me, trying to push [20:47] for. [20:48] At the moment, they're polling six [20:49] seats. Now, usually what happens in [20:51] Israeli politics, a new there's a new [20:53] party bump. Um six seats is is not a [20:57] massive bump. And if that's how he [20:59] starts, it might be difficult for him [21:02] to continue that and and and rise. [21:05] Usually, that's the time it's the first [21:08] polling. Again, it could be in a few [21:10] days when everyone understands what the [21:12] party is about a little bit more. Could [21:13] be they'll get a few more. But, usually [21:16] that's where you top out. Again, there [21:18] there's plenty of exceptions to this [21:20] rule in the past, but for a new party [21:23] like Winter, usually that's where you [21:24] top out as you come in. And six isn't [21:27] the largest number um because some of [21:30] the more established party will have [21:31] bigger war chests, they'll have name and [21:33] branding, they'll have incumbency in [21:35] their favor as we get closer to the [21:37] elections. So, it's very hard to tell, [21:39] but at the moment they don't seem to be [21:41] taking uh the campaign by storm, but [21:44] we'll have to wait and see. [21:46] Um Bobby Meth asked does Anat Wolff have [21:49] any chance of crossing the threshold? [21:51] Well, I haven't seen her in any polls. I [21:53] know she is running. Um [21:55] I haven't heard too much about her [21:57] since. [21:58] Um so, at the moment it doesn't seem [22:00] like she has any chance. [22:02] Um so, you know, [22:03] if if I see uh if I see her in any [22:06] polling, [22:07] um then then I can speak to that in the [22:10] future. [22:12] Um [22:17] Okay, Bobby Meth asked is the reason [22:18] Bibi won't retire fear of prosecution, [22:21] megalomania, or sincerely he only has [22:23] the skillset to deal with Israel's [22:25] challenges? Well, [22:26] that's quite a few accusations. [22:28] I believe that there's a certain amount [22:30] of your last reason in Netanyahu himself [22:34] that I think he he and the people around [22:36] him really do believe that he is the [22:38] only one capable of dealing with [22:39] Israel's challenges, and that's very [22:41] much the message that they're putting [22:43] out. That's again, we're going back a a [22:45] couple of elections where uh Netanyahu's [22:48] major campaign video was the babysitter, [22:51] that he's the only one who could look [22:53] after our children, look after our [22:54] future, keep us safe. Um we're very much [22:57] going back into that territory. [22:59] Um it at the moment doesn't seem to be [23:02] working because they could have suddenly [23:04] not gaining at this point, but [23:06] Netanyahu is an excellent campaigner, so [23:08] maybe he'll hit on something better and [23:12] and and start clawing some of his lost [23:14] support [23:16] back. [23:17] Um [23:20] Okay, this is Okay, this is a sunny I [23:21] didn't [23:23] relate to, but it's it's an important I [23:24] think we spoke about it last week. [23:26] Kenya's lost Israel's air strikes in [23:28] Syria. Abu Dujana [23:30] airport runway and storage facility [23:32] elicited a strong rebuke from US [23:34] ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack. He [23:36] implied that Israel's actions could have [23:38] ignited a war between the two countries. [23:40] What are your thoughts on this? Do you [23:41] think Barrack has taken Turkey side? [23:42] Well, he has taken Turkey side and [23:45] there's been quite a bit of pushback and [23:47] Barrack himself has even apologized for [23:49] comments he made about the Golan [23:52] not necessarily to do with this, but he [23:54] seems to go too far this week when he [23:56] talked about the occupied Golan and as [23:58] we know that is against [24:00] President Trump's recognition of [24:03] Israel's sovereignty over the Golan. [24:06] So it does seem like he might have [24:07] overstepped. There is a feeling in [24:09] Israel that yes, absolutely Ambassador [24:13] Barrack has basically taking Turkey side [24:15] on a lot of this. [24:17] Um [24:17] And exactly where what that means and [24:20] where that stands in the Trump [24:22] administration, but at the moment [24:24] we haven't seen anything open coming out [24:28] from President Trump for and and [24:31] against, but certainly Israel does not [24:32] see in Ambassador Barrack a particularly [24:36] friendly uh [24:38] uh [24:38] character at all. [24:40] Um [24:47] Okay, there's a question about [24:49] Palestinian security PA security forces [24:52] set up a checkpoint in Area C where they [24:55] detained [24:56] an IDF, reservist. [25:12] Explanation because according to [25:13] tracking he never actually went into [25:17] areas A [25:18] under [25:20] Palestinian security control. He [25:22] remained in area C which is under full [25:24] Israel control and it's certainly a [25:26] worrying development that the [25:27] Palestinian Authority could [25:30] you know arrest or detain an Israeli [25:32] certainly Israeli IDF reserve soldier [25:36] during this time. So that's certainly a [25:38] major issue and I'm sure [25:41] is being investigated. We'll have to [25:43] wait [25:44] and see [25:45] what the results are. [25:47] Um [25:49] and I think a final point from Bobby [25:51] Ramblewitz is [25:52] um the warning about an uprising Judean [25:54] Samaria. [25:56] Um and wouldn't that be a failure by [25:58] Israel to assert who is in charge? Well, [26:00] I I'm not sure if it if this question [26:03] gets to the whole sort of settler [26:04] violence issue. [26:06] While many times in the past settler [26:09] violence has been exaggerated, the [26:11] statistics includes everything from [26:14] peaceful visits, [26:16] praying or just being on the Temple [26:18] Mount, school visits, traffic accidents, [26:20] etc. etc. It's clear that the ante has [26:24] been upped in recent weeks and there has [26:27] been some severe acts of violence by [26:29] Israelis in Judean Samaria. [26:31] Israel is worried about this not just [26:33] because of the international diplomatic [26:36] condemnation, but also because of the [26:39] the IDF needs to be in complete control [26:42] and at the moment it can't be [26:44] everywhere. The IDF is stretched. [26:46] As we know it's in Syria, it's in [26:48] Lebanon, it's in Gaza. [26:50] It's you know it's it's watching the [26:52] Jordanian, the Egyptian border. So, [26:54] there are certainly less troops and less [26:57] high-quality troops that are now [26:59] patrolling Judea and Samaria, and they [27:00] certainly don't have the requisite [27:03] troops to be able to patrol all the [27:06] territories and prevent violence by [27:09] Israelis against Palestinians. There are [27:11] some uh [27:13] examples which have certainly looked bad [27:15] in the international stage of settlers [27:17] violently removing um Palestinians from [27:21] their homes and then preventing from [27:23] their return. Uh this is something, as I [27:25] said, that not just the IDF has warned [27:27] about, but the political echelon is very [27:29] aware of. But, we also we all have to [27:33] take into consideration. [27:38] I'm not justifying, I'm just explaining. [27:40] We are in election season. We saw this [27:42] week [27:43] uh [27:44] religious Zionist [27:46] member of Knesset Smotrich, who decided [27:48] to take it on himself to go and go into [27:50] some [27:51] uh Palestinian villages and try to [27:52] demolish monuments to terrorist [27:55] individuals. These are things which if [27:57] they should be taken down, and they [27:58] should if they are memorializing or [28:00] glorifying terrorists, they should be [28:01] taken down by the IDF. But, as is clear, [28:04] Smotrich decided this was something that [28:07] could only do him and his party good [28:09] during the election season, which some [28:12] call silly season. Um but, we know that [28:15] not only was this condemned from across [28:18] the political spectrum, even from within [28:20] the party, the head of the Knesset [28:23] faction of the religious Zionist [28:24] basically said that these actions are [28:26] like uh you know, a suicide pact on the [28:30] religious Zionist party, which is, as I [28:32] said, already below the threshold. [28:34] They've been dealt quite a blow by Ofir [28:36] Winter, and these sort of activities [28:38] which are just for show. If this was [28:41] of really great concern to uh [28:45] uh member of Knesset Smotrich, he had [28:47] the last 4 years to do it. The fact he's [28:49] doing it only [28:51] a few weeks before, a couple of months [28:52] before elections, shows really what the [28:55] larger motivation was. Um so, [28:57] unfortunately, you know, everything has [28:59] to be seen through the prism of internal [29:01] Israeli politics, of elections. Not [29:04] excusing, not justifying, but it's [29:06] important to understand that at the [29:07] moment, uh a right-wing government is [29:11] going to have to look as right-wing as [29:13] possible, and that will have uh a [29:15] bearing on many of the actions the [29:17] Israeli government will take over the [29:18] next couple of months. Because, as I [29:20] said, they are flailing in the polls. [29:22] There's no great [29:24] path to return uh as a coalition as a [29:27] whole. And um so, all of the parties are [29:30] trying desperately to [29:32] uh gain as many right-wing uh uh [29:34] supporters as possible, and this will, [29:37] fortunately or unfortunately, however [29:38] you look at it, have a major bearing on [29:41] uh actions of the government and other [29:43] members of the coalition in the weeks [29:46] and months ahead. And with that, I'd [29:47] like to thank you for your contribution, [29:49] your questions, and I look forward to [29:51] seeing you next week. Goodnight from [29:53] Israel.
